TWO WAVES OF THE PANDEMIC: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL EXPECTATIONS OF UKRAINIANS

Abstract

Purpose. The article covers the analysis of differences in social and political expectations of Ukrainians, which have evolved under the restrictive measures and have been related to the change of risks, threats and experiences personal assessments in the emergency situation. Methods. The study, organized as a quasi-experiment with unrelated samples, was undertaken in two steps, the first of which was in March 2020, and the second – in September 2020. Variables were measured by using an extended Likert scale to assess risks, threats, experiences, social and political expectations. Sample populations were formed by using an online survey (namely, “respondent-driven sampling”) in compliance with the procedures ensuring representativeness. The focus of the results interpretation was on the consequences which might occur for predicting of the citizens’ social and political behavior. Results. It was determined that the actualization of negative social and political expectations in society had taken place due to the background of unclear pandemic control actions, unpredictability, and lack of interpretation for changes in the economic regime, etc. Therefore, the pessimism or optimism of the assessments is related not to personal attitudes, but to a real reflection of events. It was argued that the intensification of negative allocentric experiences against the background of high assessments of social, political and personal threats and risks could provoke exacerbation of social confrontation, increase tensions and conflicts, as well as hinder the establishment of social consensus and social solidarity. Conclusions. Social expectations are interpreted as the individual’s components of the system of social behavior regulation (of the interaction in group or society), acting as a coherent system of requirements for norms, positions, social roles. It is shown that, as an attribute of a differentiated society, the variability in reactions to a specific course of events contributes to the formation and development of a complex ramified system of social expectations, being a factor of dynamic processes in the society itself. It was considered that society needed the implementation of a targeted program for psychological counteraction and prevention of phenomena that might provoke social destruction.